经济学面试指南

光华启迪英语组-薛老师

The Goal 目标: To demonstrate you can think like an economist, not just recite facts.

展示你能够像经济学家一样思考，而不仅仅是背诵事实。

Mastering the A-Level Foundation & Beyond (掌握A-Level基础并超越)

Microeconomics 微观经济学

A-Level Base A-Level基础:

  • Supply & Demand 供给与需求
  • Market Failure 市场失灵
  • Elasticity 弹性
  • Cost Curves 成本曲线

Interview Extension 面试延伸:

Use indifference curves to derive a demand curve.

中文思路: 能够解释如何通过消费者选择模型，在预算约束和无差异曲线下，推导出价格消费曲线，从而得出个人需求曲线。

English for Interview: We can derive an individual's demand curve by observing how their optimal consumption bundle changes as the price of one good varies, holding income and other prices constant. This traces out the price-consumption curve, the basis for the demand curve.

Understand game theory (Prisoner's Dilemma, Nash Equilibrium) to analyse oligopolies.

中文思路: 用囚徒困境模型解释寡头企业为何难以维持合作（共谋），并引入纳什均衡作为分析工具。

English for Interview: The Prisoner's Dilemma effectively models the interdependence in oligopolistic markets. Even though collusion is mutually beneficial, the incentive to cheat often leads to a Nash Equilibrium where both firms are worse off, explaining why cartels are inherently unstable.

Critically evaluate the Coase Theorem (when do transaction costs make it fail?)

中文思路: 理解科斯定理的核心（在产权明确且交易成本为零时，市场能自行解决外部性问题），并重点批判其前提（交易成本高昂、产权难以界定等现实因素）。

English for Interview: The Coase Theorem suggests bargaining can resolve externalities if property rights are clear and transaction costs are zero. However, its real-world applicability is limited because transaction costs are often prohibitive, especially when many parties are involved, leading to market failure.

Macroeconomics 宏观经济学

A-Level Base A-Level基础:

  • Fiscal & Monetary Policy 财政与货币政策
  • Inflation 通货膨胀
  • Unemployment 失业
  • Economic Growth 经济增长

Interview Extension 面试延伸:

The long-run Phillips Curve and the role of expectations

中文思路: 理解短期非利普斯曲线（失业与通胀的权衡）和长期垂直的非利普斯曲线（任何通胀水平下都存在自然失业率），并引入适应性预期和理性预期理论。

English for Interview: The short-run Phillips Curve suggests a trade-off, but in the long run, as economic agents adjust their inflationary expectations, the curve becomes vertical at the Natural Rate of Unemployment. This is a key critique from the Monetarist and Rational Expectations schools.

Solow Growth Model vs. Endogenous Growth Theory

中文思路: 索洛模型强调外生的技术进步是长期增长的唯一源泉，而内生增长理论则试图将技术进步（通过教育、研发等）内生化到模型之中。

English for Interview: The Solow Model attributes long-run growth to exogenous technological progress. In contrast, Endogenous Growth Theory argues that investment in human capital and innovation can generate self-sustaining growth, making technological progress an outcome of economic activity, not an external factor.

The mechanics of Quantitative Easing and the concept of a liquidity trap

中文思路: 解释量化宽松（QE）是央行在利率已降至零时，通过购买长期资产（如国债）向市场注入流动性的非常规货币政策。其有效性在流动性陷阱（人们宁愿持有现金也不愿消费/投资）中受到挑战。

English for Interview: When interest rates hit zero, conventional monetary policy fails—this is a liquidity trap. Quantitative Easing (QE) is then used, where the central bank creates money to purchase assets, aiming to lower long-term rates and stimulate lending. Its effectiveness is debated, as it may primarily boost asset prices rather than real economic activity.

English for Data & Chart Interpretation (用于数据和图表解读的英语表达)

Describing Trends 描述趋势

Upward Trend 上升趋势:

  • There was a sharp increase... (出现了急剧的上升...)
  • It climbed steadily... (它稳步攀升...)
  • We see a marked upward trend... (我们看到一个显著的上升趋势...)
  • The figure surged between 2003 and 2007. (该数值在2003年至2007年间激增。)

Downward Trend 下降趋势:

  • It plummeted... (它暴跌...)
  • There was a gradual decline... (出现了一个逐渐的下降...)
  • The figure halved within a decade. (该数值在十年内减半。)
  • We observe a sustained drop... (我们观察到一个持续的下降...)

Stability/Volatility 稳定/波动:

  • The rate remained relatively stable... (该比率保持相对稳定...)
  • The data fluctuated wildly... (数据剧烈波动...)
  • It plateaued between 2010 and 2015. (它在2010年至2015年间趋于平稳。)
  • There was significant volatility around the trend. (在趋势线周围存在显著的波动性。)

Structuring Your Analysis 构建你的分析

1. Describe what you see. 描述你所看到的。

  • If we look at Chart 1, the most striking feature is the inverse correlation between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate until approximately 1975.
  • The chart depicts a clear positive relationship between house prices and credit availability.

2. Quantify your description. 量化你的描述。

  • As unemployment fell from 6% to 3%, inflation rose by about 4 percentage points.
  • Investment collapsed, falling from 20% of GDP to just 12% in two years.

3. Propose an economic explanation. 提出一个经济学解释。

  • This appears to illustrate the short-run Phillips Curve trade-off. However, the relationship seems to break down after the 1970s, which could be explained by supply-side shocks, like the oil crisis, or a shift in inflationary expectations.
  • This trend is consistent with diminishing marginal returns; as more capital is added, the incremental gain in output falls.

4. Critique the data. 批判数据。

  • However, we should question the reliability of this data. The unemployment rate, for instance, may not account for underemployment or discouraged workers.
  • While this correlation is strong, we cannot immediately assume causation. A third factor, such as technological change, might be driving both trends.

经济学数据可视化示例

Phillips Curve 菲利普斯曲线

GDP Growth & Inflation 经济增长与通胀

English Language Logic & Structuring Arguments (英语逻辑与构建论证)

The PEEL Model for Answering Questions 回答问题的PEEL模型

P

Point 观点

State your initial answer or hypothesis clearly.

  • My initial thought is that a sugar tax would be effective in reducing consumption, but its overall success depends crucially on the price elasticity of demand.
  • From a theoretical standpoint, one would expect this policy to increase aggregate demand.
E

Evidence/Explain 证据/解释

Use economic theory to explain your point.

  • According to basic supply and demand analysis, a tax shifts the supply curve inward, increasing price and decreasing quantity demanded. The extent of the reduction in quantity depends on how responsive consumers are to the price change.
  • This can be explained by the concept of opportunity cost. The time spent commuting has an alternative use, which people value highly.
E

Example 例子

Use a real-world or hypothetical example.

  • For instance, if demand for sugary drinks is inelastic, as it might be for addicts, the tax would have to be very high to reduce consumption significantly and would be regressive, disproportionately affecting low-income households.
  • A classic example would be the market for used cars, where asymmetric information between the seller and buyer leads to the 'market for lemons' problem.
L

Link 链接

Link your explanation back to the original question or consider a broader perspective.

  • Therefore, while the tax would work in theory, its real-world effectiveness and equity implications are contingent on the specific context and elasticity values.
  • Ultimately, the net effect depends on the relative strength of these opposing forces—the boost to investment versus the drag from higher borrowing costs.

English Stalling & Buying Time Techniques (英语拖延与争取时间技巧)

When You Need to Think 当你需要思考时:

  • That's a fascinating question. Could I have a moment to gather my thoughts?
  • Let me think about this step-by-step.
  • To make sure I'm approaching this correctly, are we considering a partial or general equilibrium framework? (This shows you're thinking about the right tools).

When You Want to Clarify the Question 当你想澄清问题时:

  • Just to clarify, when you say 'best way', are we defining 'best' in terms of economic efficiency, equity, or political feasibility?
  • Before I answer, could I confirm that we're discussing the short-run effects here?

When You Want to Structure Your Answer 当你想构建回答时:

  • There are two/three main aspects to this. First,... Second,... Finally,...
  • On the one hand,... On the other hand,...
  • We can look at this from a microeconomic and a macroeconomic perspective.

When You Realise a Mistake or Want to Refine Your Answer 当你意识到错误或想完善答案时:

  • Actually, let me rephrase that.
  • A more precise way of putting that would be...
  • Having said that, it's also important to consider the counter-argument...

经济大事件总结

5. 宏观经济大事件

5.1 全球通胀与货币政策走向

核心事件:

全球主要央行（如美联储、欧洲央行）在控制通胀与防止经济衰退之间走钢丝。

Event: Major global central banks (like the Fed and ECB) are walking a tightrope between controlling inflation and preventing an economic recession.

发展与现状:

  • 经过激进的加息周期后，全球通胀水平已从高点显著回落，但最后一公里尤为艰难，尤其是服务通胀和工资增长仍显粘性。
  • Global inflation has retreated significantly from its peak after an aggressive hiking cycle, but the last mile is particularly difficult, with sticky service inflation and wage growth.
  • 美联储在2024年仅降息一次，市场对降息路径的预测持续波动，反映出数据依赖模式下的不确定性。
  • The Fed cut rates only once in 2024, and market predictions for the rate-cut path remain volatile, reflecting uncertainty in a data-dependent mode.

经济学意义:

这是检验短期非利普斯曲线有效性以及理性预期作用的绝佳案例。面试官可能会问：为何通胀如此顽固？央行是否应该优先考虑经济增长？

Economics Insight: This is a perfect case to examine the validity of the short-run Phillips Curve and the role of Rational Expectations. An interviewer might ask: Why is inflation so sticky? Should central banks prioritize economic growth now?

5.2 地缘政治与全球供应链重构

核心事件:

红海危机、俄乌冲突延续等地缘冲突持续扰乱关键贸易航线与能源供应。

Event: Geopolitical conflicts like the Red Sea crisis and the ongoing war in Ukraine continue to disrupt key trade routes and energy supplies.

发展与现状:

  • 胡塞武装对红海船只的袭击导致苏伊士运河运输量锐减，航运成本飙升，交付延迟，带来新一轮成本推动型通胀压力。
  • Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea have slashed Suez Canal traffic, causing shipping costs to soar and delivery delays, creating new cost-push inflation pressures.
  • 友岸外包和供应链多元化从概念逐步变为跨国企业的实际行动，表现为加大对墨西哥、印度、东南亚的投资。
  • Friendshoring and supply chain diversification are transitioning from concepts to real actions by multinationals, seen in increased investment in Mexico, India, and Southeast Asia.

经济学意义:

这直接关联到总供给冲击对宏观经济的影响，也是研究全球化演进和贸易保护主义经济成本的现实素材。

Economics Insight: This directly relates to the impact of negative aggregate supply shocks on the macroeconomy and serves as real-world material for studying the evolution of globalization and the economic costs of trade protectionism.

6. 微观经济大事件

6.1 美国：科技巨头的反垄断与AI竞争

核心事件:

美国司法部对苹果公司提起全面反垄断诉讼；各大科技公司（如微软、谷歌、Meta）在生成式AI领域展开军备竞赛。

Event: The U.S. Department of Justice filed a comprehensive antitrust lawsuit against Apple; major tech firms (e.g., Microsoft, Google, Meta) are engaged in an arms race in generative AI.

发展与现状:

  • 政府对苹果的诉讼指控其利用市场支配地位，通过限制超级应用、智能手表兼容性等手段，损害消费者、开发者和竞争对手的利益。这引发了关于市场力量与创新之间关系的深度讨论。
  • The lawsuit accuses Apple of using its market power to harm consumers, developers, and competitors by restricting super apps and smartwatch compatibility, sparking debate on the relationship between market power and innovation.
  • AI竞赛导致科技公司资本开支激增，重新定义了产品战略，同时也可能引发新的市场结构问题（如AI模型市场的寡头垄断）。
  • The AI race is driving a surge in capital expenditure among tech firms, redefining product strategies, and potentially causing new market structure issues (e.g., oligopoly in the AI model market).

经济学意义:

这是分析市场失灵（滥用市场势力）、政府干预（反垄断政策）以及熊彼特创新理论的经典案例。

Economics Insight: This is a classic case for analyzing market failure (abuse of market power), government intervention (antitrust policy), and Schumpeterian theory of innovation.

6.2 英国：公用事业与劳动力市场的管制困境

核心事件:

泰晤士水务陷入深度财务危机，面临国有化风险；英国各行各业（铁路、医疗等）的罢工潮持续不断。

Event: Thames Water is in deep financial crisis, facing risk of renationalisation; strike waves across various UK sectors (rail, healthcare, etc.) continue.

发展与现状:

  • 泰晤士水务因巨额债务、环境污染和投资不足而濒临破产，暴露了私有化自然垄断行业在价格管制（如RPI-X模型）、投资激励与公共服务质量之间的根本矛盾。
  • Thames Water is on the brink of collapse due to huge debt, environmental pollution, and underinvestment, exposing the fundamental conflict in privatised natural monopoly sectors among price regulation (e.g., RPI-X model), investment incentives, and public service quality.
  • 为解决生活成本危机，工会持续要求高于通胀的涨薪，导致各行业罢工，深刻影响劳动生产率和经济活动。这反映了名义工资粘性和实际工资下降对劳动力供给的影响。
  • To cope with the cost-of-living crisis, unions continue demanding pay rises above inflation, leading to widespread strikes that significantly impact labour productivity and economic activity. This reflects the impact of nominal wage rigidity and falling real wages on labour supply.

经济学意义:

泰晤士水务是研究自然垄断与政府管制的活教材。罢工潮则直接关联到劳动力市场的运作失灵和收入分配问题。

Economics Insight: Thames Water is a living textbook case for studying natural monopoly and government regulation. The strike waves are directly linked to malfunctions in the labour market and issues of income distribution.

如何在面试中运用这些事件

  1. 连接理论：

    当被问到市场失灵时，不要只背定义。可以接着说：例如，近期美国对苹果的反垄断诉讼，就很好地阐释了拥有市场势力的企业如何可能通过限制竞争来造成市场失灵。

  2. 展示批判性思维：

    分析泰晤士水务事件时，可以比较不同解决方案的利弊：国有化可能保证服务但效率低下，加强管制可能挫伤投资，而分析其根本原因在于管制框架本身的设计缺陷。

  3. 构建完整逻辑链：

    • 现象： 红海危机。
    • 经济学影响： 航运成本上升 -> 企业生产成本增加（成本推动型通胀）-> 央行在降息上更趋谨慎（货币政策困境）-> 经济增长可能受损。
    • 面试回答示例: Well, considering the recent Red Sea crisis, which acts as a negative supply shock, we might see a period of stagflationary pressure. This complicates the task for central banks like the Fed, as cutting rates to boost growth could exacerbate inflation, while holding rates high could stifle the economy.

7. 2024-2025经济大事件总结

📈 宏观经济大事件

事件与描述 关联知识点与表达

1. 中美贸易关系波动 (US-China Trade Relations Fluctuations)

2025年5月，中美达成协议，大幅削减了此前实施的惩罚性关税（例如美国对华关税从高位下调115个基点）。此举暂时缓解了全球贸易紧张局势。此前，美国在2025年初的一系列新关税威胁曾导致不确定性飙升，并引发多国准备采取报复性措施。

核心概念:

  • 保护主义 (Protectionism)
  • 关税 (Tariffs)
  • aggregate demand (AD)

分析句式:

The imposition of tariffs can be seen as a negative supply-side shock, potentially causing cost-push inflation and a contraction in aggregate demand due to reduced trade volumes.

2. 全球增长放缓与政策分歧 (Global Growth Slowdown & Policy Divergence)

主要国际机构如IMF和UNCTAD在2025年下调了全球经济增长预期。美国2025年第一季度GDP出现小幅收缩-7。与此同时，西方欧洲成为持续的增长洼地，英国经济活动停滞，德国经济也出现小幅收缩。

核心概念:

  • 经济增长 (Economic Growth)
  • 货币政策 (Monetary Policy)
  • 财政政策 (Fiscal Policy)

分析句式:

Expansionary fiscal policy (increasing government spending or cutting taxes) can be used to boost aggregate demand, but it may lead to a larger budget deficit.

3. 各国通胀与央行政策 (Inflation & Central Bank Policies)

全球通胀在2024-2025年呈现粘性，尤其是服务业通胀。各国央行政策路径不一：美联储因经济韧性和通胀压力而转向鹰派；欧洲央行则因增长乏力和通胀放缓而保持宽松；日本央行是例外，在长期通缩后准备加息。

核心概念:

  • 通货膨胀 (Inflation)
  • 利率 (Interest Rates)
  • 汇率 (Exchange Rates)

分析句式:

A strong exchange rate can lead to lower cost-push inflation due to cheaper imports, but may worsen the current account deficit.

📊 微观经济大事件（聚焦美英）

事件与描述 关联知识点与表达

1. 供应链与商品市场波动 (Supply Chain & Commodity Market Volatility)

地缘政治事件（如红海危机）持续扰乱关键贸易航线，导致航运成本飙升和交付延迟。此外，极端天气（如澳大利亚洪灾）也对农业生产造成冲击，曾导致生菜等农产品价格短期内急剧上涨。

核心概念:

  • 供给与需求 (Supply & Demand)
  • 弹性 (Elasticity)
  • 市场失灵 (Market Failure)

分析句式:

A supply shock, such as disruption from floods which heavily impacted the supply chain of lettuce, shifts the supply curve to the left, leading to higher prices and a lower equilibrium quantity.

2. 劳动力市场变化与企业回应 (Labour Market Changes & Corporate Responses)

多国面临劳动力短缺问题，部分原因是边境管控导致移民工人减少。为应对成本压力，企业加速推进自动化（即资本-劳动力替代）。同时，一些国家（如澳大利亚）大幅提高最低工资标准以应对生活成本危机。

核心概念:

  • 劳动力市场 (Labour Markets)
  • 最低工资 (Minimum Wage)
  • 生产成本 (Costs of Production)

分析句式:

A minimum wage set above the equilibrium wage rate may cause an increase in unemployment, unless the demand for labour is inelastic.

3. 科技发展与行业变革 (Technological Development & Industry Transformation)

人工智能 (AI) 投资热潮持续，科技公司资本开支激增。这引发了关于市场结构（如AI模型市场可能形成寡头垄断）和政府干预（如美国司法部对苹果公司提起全面反垄断诉讼）的广泛讨论。

核心概念:

  • 市场结构 (Market Structures)
  • 反垄断政策 (Antitrust Policy)
  • 政府干预 (Government Intervention)

分析句式:

In oligopolistic markets, firms are highly interdependent. This can be modelled using game theory, such as the prisoner's dilemma, to explain why collusion is often unstable.